Elliott Wave Theory is a form of technical analysis based on the principle that prices move in waves.
This guide explains how the Elliot Wave Theory works, including chart examples to help you identify waves.
Elliot Wave Pattern Examples
The Elliot Wave Theory is based on the principle that waves occur in a repeating pattern of:
- a move up,
- a partial retracement down,
- another move up,
- a retracement,
- then finally a last move up.
Then there is:
- (A) full retracement, followed by
- (B) partial retracement upward, then
- (C) a full move downward.
This repeats on a macro and micro time frame.
Basic Pattern Example
Here is a visual illustration of the basic pattern of the Elliott Wave.
Elliott Wave is based on crowd psychology of booms and busts, rallies and retracements.
Traders often use Fibonacci numbers to anticipate where a retracement is likely to end and thus the place where they should place their trade.
Example Trade Using the Elliott Wave
The chart below illustrates the Elliott Wave pattern applied to crowd psychology (i.e. S&P 500) and Fibonacci retracements.
In the example above of the S&P 500 ETF:
- If the Elliott Wave theorist recognizes that he/she just completed the leg from (2) to (3) and the market is beginning to retrace, the trader might put a buy order at the 38% Fibonacci retracement.
- That trade would have failed and the trader would have been stopped out of their long position. The trader then might consider putting an order in at the 50% retracement.
- This would have been a profitable trade, making up for the previous loss and more.
- Next, realizing that the latest trend was the (4) to (5) up move, the Elliot Wave theorist would expect a downward move to (A). This retracement is larger than the previous (1) to (2) retracement and (3) to (4) retracement.
- A reasonable guess as to where the retracement (5) to (A) will end is the 0.618 – the golden Fibonacci ratio. Selecting the 61% retracement would have proved profitable for a little while, assuming the trader didn’t have extremely tight stop losses in place.
- The 61% retracement turned out to be a head fake. Subsequently, the next often used Fibonacci retracement is 100%. This trade would have been profitable, given the S&P 500 retraced almost perfectly at 100% of the move from (4) to (5).
- A likely profit target to exit at least part of the trade initiated at point (A), is the 38% Fibonacci level. This also happened to be the turning point for the next leg down from (B) to (C).
Please note, this is an example trade – not a recommendation.
Where to Trade Commodities Using Technical Analysis
If you are interested in trading using technical analysis, have a look at our reviews of these regulated brokers available in to learn which charting tools and analysis software they offer:
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. <b>Between 53.00%-89.00% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs.</b> You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Learn more about technical analysis charting concepts and strategies, including:
- Typical Price Moving Average
- Market Thrust
- Advanced Decline Ratio
- Adaptive Market Averages
- Exponential Ribbons
- Average Directional Movement
For all the basics on how to trade commodities, see our introduction to commodity trading. Also, take a look at our guides on stock, CFD, and commodity brokers to find out which online trading platforms are available in .