4 Reasons You Might Invest in Cotton
Investors might want to consider the following reasons for investing in cotton:
- Bet on Global Stockpiling
- Bet on Strong Global Economy
- Bet on Inflation
- Bet on Higher Oil Prices
Betting on Global Stockpiling
China has shown a tremendous appetite for cotton and willingness in recent history to build up huge stockpiles. The country has taken these measures to support and subsidize Chinese farmers.
Chinese growth has stalled in recent years creating weakness in many commodity prices. The country has been selling its stockpiles, and this has offset the pickup in demand from Chinese consumers.
In addition, many other countries have diminishing stockpiles. If global growth accelerates, then some of these countries could resume stockpiling.
Is Cotton a Safe Haven?
Commodities such as cotton do well when global economies are growing at a healthy pace. In particular, emerging market countries with higher growth rates are likely to experience big increases in their demand for cotton clothing and cotton products as they grow wealthier.
How Does Cotton Act as an Inflation Hedge?
Investing in cotton and other commodities is a way to hedge against the loss of purchasing power caused by inflation.
As central banks print more money, the purchasing power of fiat currencies (i.e., the dollar, euro and pound) declines. However, there is a finite amount of natural resources, so agricultural commodities such as cotton are more likely to retain their value.
Speculating on Oil Prices
The high correlation of cotton prices with crude oil makes investing in cotton an interesting way to capitalize on a rise in crude prices. Since crude is both an important ingredient in polyester production as well as a cost of cotton farming, cotton may benefit more than crude oil if prices for crude oil move higher.
Should I Invest in Cotton?
As with many other commodities, cotton prices can be very volatile.
However, investing in cotton can be one way to mitigate risk and diversify the investments in a portfolio.
Investors should consider the advantages of investing in a basket of commodities that includes cotton, other agricultural commodities, metals and energy:
- Protection against inflation.
- Protection against price swings in individual commodities.
Including cotton in this basket may be a way to capitalize on these developments:
- Global Growth: China and India are enormous countries with fast-growing economies. These and other emerging market countries will have huge needs for raw materials such as cotton in the years ahead.
- Climate Change: Global warming has the potential to create supply shocks in the years ahead. Prolonged periods of drought might create diminished crop yields and higher prices.
However, traders should also consider the risks of investing in cotton:
- Sales of Chinese stockpiles of cotton could create a serious overhang on the market.
- A fall in price or increase in production of competing materials such as polyester could drive demand away from cotton.
- Subsidies of cotton in many countries could lead to overproduction and trade wars.
What Do the Experts Think About Cotton?
Experts see the excess supply of cotton as a major headwind for the commodity’s price.They note increased production as the main catalysts for lower prices:
The supply side should remain ample, and if we see production ramp up, cotton will see further losses.
– Lara Magnusen, portfolio manager, Altegris Advisors LLC
Other experts note the sale of China’s stockpiles as a negative market factor:
People used to say that because so much of the world inventory was within China, that it was bullish, because it was never going to come out. Now, we are in the reverse situation.
– Gillian Rutherford, commodities portfolio manager, Pacific Investment Management Co.
However, one analyst believes the pollution caused by polyester manufacturing could provide a glimmer of hope for cotton prices in the years ahead:
China has now forced the closure of numerous polyester manufacturing facilities due to widespread pollution. Increasing cotton’s share of the fiber market will be difficult at best, but as mills and textile operations understand that cotton is the only sustainable fiber being produced then that growth will come.
– O.A. Cleveland, Consulting Economist, Cotton Experts
How Can I Invest in Cotton?
Investors have several ways to invest in cotton:
Cotton Trading Methods Compared
|Method of Investing||Complexity Rating (1 = easy, 5 = hard)||Storage Costs?||Security Costs?||Expiration Dates?||Management Costs?|
|Cotton ETFs (ETNs)||2||N||N||N||Y||N||Y|
The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), which is part of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) offer a contract on cotton that settles into 50,000 pounds of the commodity.
Both contracts are traded electronically and have expiration months of March, May, July, October and December.
Futures are a derivative instrument through which traders make leveraged bets on commodity prices. If prices decline, traders must deposit additional margin in order to maintain their positions. At expiration, the contracts are financially settled on the NYMEX, but physically settled on the ICE.
Cotton Options on Futures
The ICE offers an options contract on cotton futures.
Options are also a derivative instrument that employ leverage to invest in commodities. As with futures, options have an expiration date. However, options also have a strike price, which is the price above which the option finishes in the money.
Options buyers pay a price known as a premium to purchase contracts. An options bet succeeds only if the price of cotton futures rises above the strike price by an amount greater than the premium paid for the contract. Therefore, options traders must be right about the size and timing of the move in cotton futures to profit from their trades.
These financial instruments trade as shares on exchanges in the same way that stocks do. Two ETFs invest in cotton through futures markets:
Top 2 Cotton ETFs
|iPath Bloomberg Cotton Subindex Total Return ETN||iPath Pure Beta Cotton ETN|
Shares of Cotton Companies
There are no public companies that are pure-play investments in cotton. However, traders that want some indirect exposure to cotton prices can purchase shares of companies that provide products and services to farmers:
Another way to invest in cotton is through the use of a contract for difference (CFD) derivative instrument. CFDs allow traders to speculate on the price of cotton. The value of a CFD is the difference between the price of cotton at the time of purchase and its current price.
Where Can You Trade Cotton?
If you are looking to get started trading cotton and other agricultural commodities, here's a list of regulated options available in to consider.
Top Brokers Available in
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 73.0%-89.0% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.