Plus500 now offers prediction markets to US traders through its Plus500 Futures platform, giving access to regulated event contracts listed on Kalshi.
This allows eligible US traders to trade real-world outcomes, such as interest rate decisions, inflation data, and major political events, within a regulated framework.
This page explains how Plus500 prediction markets work, how it compares to trading directly on Kalshi, and how it compares to Polymarket for US users.
Key features
- Trade reality: markets based on real-world events that resolve to a clear outcome.
- Simple yes or no: you’re trading probability, not charts and indicators.
- Low commission: Plus500 lists a 1¢ commission per prediction market contract (exchange fees may also apply).
- Start small: Plus500 states you can start with as little as $1.
- Mobile-first: prediction markets are available in the Plus500 Futures app (iOS and Android).
What are Plus500 prediction markets?
Prediction markets let you trade on the probability of future events. Each market is structured around a clear yes-or-no outcome, with prices reflecting the market’s estimate of how likely that outcome is.
With Plus500, prediction markets are offered through Plus500 Futures, using regulated event contracts listed on Kalshi.
In simple terms, you are trading probabilities, not price movements.
Read our full Plus500 US review for the broader platform overview.
What is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a US event contract exchange where contracts settle based on objectively verifiable real-world outcomes, for example a published inflation number or a Federal Reserve decision.
Each market has defined rules explaining what counts as the official outcome and which data source is used to resolve the contract. Plus500 Futures provides broker-style access to these Kalshi-listed contracts.
Mobile app: is Plus500 Futures available?
Yes. Plus500 offers a dedicated Plus500 Futures trading app, and it promotes futures and prediction markets as available within one app experience.
- Android: Plus500 Futures app on Google Play. View app
- iPhone/iPad: Plus500 Futures app on the Apple App Store. View app
Plus500 Futures also references a mobile-first trading interface via its futures technology provider (T4 Mobile / T4 WebTrader). More on T4 Mobile
Fees, commission, and a worked example
Plus500 lists a 1¢ commission per prediction market contract. Plus500 also notes that additional exchange fees may apply, depending on the market and venue.
Worked example (500 contracts):
- You buy 500 YES contracts.
- Plus500 commission: 500 × $0.01 = $5.00.
- If the exchange charges additional fees, they would be added on top of the $5.00.
This is separate from profit and loss on the trade itself.
Funding your account (US)
Plus500 lists the following funding methods on its US site:
- Visa
- Mastercard
- Bank transfer
- Apple Pay
- Google Pay
Plus500 also states 0% deposit and withdrawal fees on the broker side. (Your bank or payment provider may still charge fees.)
Minimum deposit requirements can vary by method. If you care about the minimum and funding times, check the Plus500 Futures funding page inside the app or on the broker’s site before depositing.
How Plus500 prediction markets work
Plus500 prediction markets follow the standard event-contract model used by regulated US platforms.
Event contracts
Each contract is linked to a specific outcome, such as:
- Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its next meeting?
- Will US inflation exceed a defined threshold this year?
- Will a particular political outcome occur?
If the outcome happens, the contract typically settles at $1. If it does not, it settles at $0.
Pricing and risk
Contracts typically trade between $0 and $1 (or 0 to 100 cents). A price of 60 cents implies a roughly 60% probability, according to the market.
Your maximum risk is defined upfront. If you buy a contract at 60 cents, the most you can lose on that contract is 60 cents (plus any fees).
Larger positions are created by buying more contracts. There is no leverage in the same sense as leveraged derivatives, and there is no open-ended downside on a standard “buy” position.
Concrete example (realistic market mechanics)
Market: “Will US CPI be above 3% in March 2026?”
Current pricing: YES 42¢, NO 58¢
- Buying YES at 42¢ implies the market sees a 42% chance of CPI being above 3%.
- If you buy 500 YES contracts, your cost is $210 (plus fees).
- If CPI prints above 3%, those contracts settle at $1 each and are worth $500.
- If CPI is 3% or lower, the contracts settle at $0.
Key point: you are trading the probability of an outcome, not how big the CPI surprise is.
Order mechanics (what beginners should know)
- Orders can sit open: if your order doesn’t fill immediately, it can remain open until it is filled, you cancel it, or the event resolves.
- Partial fills happen: in thinner markets you may only get part of your order filled.
- You can cancel the remainder: if you receive a partial fill, you can cancel the unfilled portion rather than waiting.
This matters because prediction market liquidity varies widely by event.
Position constraints
Kalshi-style markets are designed so you can hold multiple contracts on the same side of an event (for example, multiple YES contracts), but you generally cannot hold both sides of the same event at the same time.
Open interest (a simple liquidity clue)
On many event contract screens you’ll see a number that represents open interest, the number of outstanding contracts.
As a quick rule, higher open interest usually means a more active market and an easier time getting in and out. Lower open interest can mean wider spreads, more partial fills, and more slippage.
What can you trade with Plus500 prediction markets?
Plus500 positions its US prediction markets around three main buckets: economic indicators, financial events, and geopolitical developments.
Economic indicators
- Inflation prints and thresholds
- Employment releases
- Growth and recession indicators
Financial events
- Federal Reserve interest rate decisions
- Number of cuts or hikes over a period
- Major US policy outcomes affecting markets
Geopolitical developments
- High-impact political outcomes
- Major government actions with measurable endpoints
- Defined events where the result can be verified objectively
This finance-first focus makes Plus500 prediction markets particularly relevant for macro and commodity-driven traders.
Plus500 Futures vs trading directly on Kalshi
US traders can access these event contracts either directly through Kalshi, or via a broker like Plus500 Futures.
| Feature | Plus500 Futures | Kalshi (direct) |
|---|---|---|
| US availability | Yes | Yes |
| Contracts offered | Kalshi-listed event contracts | Kalshi-listed event contracts |
| Fees | 1¢ commission per contract (exchange fees may apply) | Exchange fees only (varies by market) |
| How you access markets | Broker-style platform (mobile-first) | Exchange-native platform |
| Who it suits best | Traders who want a familiar broker experience | Users comfortable trading directly on the exchange |
Most traders choose based on platform preference. If you already use brokers, Plus500 Futures may feel more familiar.
Plus500 vs Polymarket (US status updated)
Polymarket historically operated as a crypto-based prediction market that did not accept US users. That changed after Polymarket acquired QCEX (a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse), and announced plans to offer a regulated US product.
Polymarket’s international platform and its US-regulated product are not necessarily the same thing. In other words, “Polymarket” can refer to different offerings depending on where you live and which entity you are using.
| Feature | Plus500 Prediction Markets (US) | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| US users accepted | Yes | US access depends on the specific regulated Polymarket US offering |
| Funding | Visa, Mastercard, bank transfer, Apple Pay, Google Pay | International product is typically crypto-funded; US product may differ |
| Regulatory posture | Access to regulated event contracts listed on Kalshi | Polymarket US aims to operate in a regulated framework via QCX/QCEX entities |
| Market focus | Finance, macro, major events | Often heavier on politics, crypto, and sports (varies by product) |
For many US users, the decision is practical. Most people are not used to funding trading accounts with crypto, managing wallets, or dealing with on-chain transactions. A broker-led approach with familiar payment methods tends to reduce friction.
How prediction markets differ from leveraged trading
Plus500 is widely known for leveraged products outside the US. Prediction markets on Plus500 Futures are different.
- No leverage in the same sense: exposure comes from the number of contracts you buy, not margin leverage.
- Defined downside on buys: on a standard buy position, the maximum loss is what you paid (plus fees).
- Binary settlement: most contracts resolve to $1 or $0, which creates an “all-or-nothing” payoff at expiry.
- Liquidity can be the real risk: some markets trade heavily, while others can be thin, leading to partial fills and difficulty exiting without moving the price.
If you are used to leveraged instruments, prediction markets may feel simpler, but the risk profile is different. You are trading event outcomes, not price trends.
Is there a demo account?
Yes. Plus500 offers a demo account that lets you explore the Plus500 Futures platform and see how prediction markets work without depositing real money.
This is useful for understanding event contracts, pricing, order behaviour, and settlement mechanics before trading live.
The demo environment uses simulated funds, but the market structure and contract logic mirror the live platform.
Clearing
Plus500 has stated in official communications that prediction market trades are cleared by the group using its clearing membership with Kalshi’s clearinghouse, Kalshi Klear.
In simple terms: a clearinghouse is the “plumbing” that sits in the middle of trades. It helps ensure contracts are settled correctly when the event resolves. In regulated markets, this is part of how the system reduces counterparty risk and keeps settlement consistent.
Who Plus500 prediction markets are (and aren’t) for
Good fit for
- US traders who want regulated access to prediction markets
- Macro and policy-focused traders (rates, inflation, elections)
- Users who prefer a broker-style interface over exchange-native tools
- Traders who want defined downside rather than open-ended risk
Less suitable for
- Traders looking for very niche or experimental events
- Users who want deep liquidity in every single market
- People expecting prediction markets to behave like leveraged trading
Regulation and taxes (US)
Yes, Plus500 prediction markets are legal in the US when accessed through Plus500 Futures using regulated event contracts listed on Kalshi, subject to eligibility and geographic restrictions.
Prediction market profits are generally taxable in the US, but the exact treatment can vary by product structure, reporting, and your personal circumstances. If you trade actively or at size, it’s worth discussing with a CPA.
FAQs
Are Plus500 prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes. Plus500 offers prediction markets to US traders through Plus500 Futures using regulated event contracts listed on Kalshi. Eligibility and availability can vary, so confirm current details on the broker’s platform before trading.
How little can I start with?
Plus500 states you can start with as little as $1 in prediction markets. Your ability to trade still depends on account funding and the contract price you choose.
What is the commission on prediction markets?
Plus500 lists a 1¢ commission per prediction market contract. Additional exchange fees may apply depending on the market.
How much can I lose on a prediction market trade?
On a standard buy position, the maximum loss is what you paid for the contracts (plus fees). For example, if you buy 200 contracts at $0.40, your maximum loss is $80 (plus fees).
Can I exit before the event resolves?
Often yes, but it depends on liquidity. Highly followed markets tend to be easier to trade in and out of than niche markets.
What is the biggest “gotcha” for beginners?
Liquidity. In thinner markets you may get partial fills or you may not be able to exit without accepting a worse price.
Does Plus500 offer sports prediction markets?
As of February 2026, Plus500 is not offering sports markets.
How to find prediction markets inside Plus500 Futures
- Open the Plus500 Futures app (or web platform).
- Navigate to “Prediction Markets” from the main menu.
- Select a category, then open an event to view rules and settlement details.
- Check open interest and pricing before placing an order.
How to get started with Plus500 prediction markets
- Open a Plus500 Futures account
- Complete identity verification
- Fund your account using a supported payment method
- Select a prediction market and read the event rules
- Buy or sell contracts based on your view
Conclusion
Plus500 prediction markets offer US traders a broker-led way to access Kalshi-listed event contracts, with low per-contract commissions and familiar funding methods.
If you want prediction market exposure without relying on crypto-only platforms, and you prefer a broker-style (mobile-first) experience, Plus500 Futures is a practical option.
Update history
This page was revised 1 time in February 2026.
Added guide to Plus500 prediction markets with sections on features, Kalshi integration, mobile app availability, fees, funding methods, and trading mechanics.
The Commodity Briefing
The stories behind the prices. Surprising, useful, occasionally weird - in your inbox every weekday.
- Price moves
- Supply shocks
- Macro drivers
Before you go
Get The Commodity Briefing - free, 2 minutes.